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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.
- 1SC Freiburg to scoreSC Freiburg vs Union Berlin · 16:3092%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.98 – 1.06SC Freiburg · Union Berlin1 · X · 265% · 20% · 15%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS73% · 64%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 2Real Sociedad to scoreReal Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano · 15:1588%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.20 – 1.52Real Sociedad · Rayo Vallecano1 · X · 250% · 28% · 22%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS68% · 70%Goal marketsSample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 3Over 1.5 goalsMonza vs Atalanta · 14:0088%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.94 – 1.81Monza · Atalanta1 · X · 233% · 29% · 38%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS69% · 72%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedCombined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 4Lazio to scoreNapoli vs Lazio · 11:3087%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.35 – 2.07Napoli · Lazio1 · X · 220% · 28% · 51%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS63% · 66%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 5Bournemouth to scoreIpswich vs Bournemouth · 14:0087%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.52 – 2.03Ipswich · Bournemouth1 · X · 224% · 29% · 48%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS66% · 69%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
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How PickLab works
Real data
Official feed from API-Football: fixtures, lineups, events and statistics.
Transparent model
A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.
No invented numbers
If there is not enough data we say so instead of guessing.