1st Division: Sopoti Librazhd (#11) приема Oriku (#12). Скорошна форма — Sopoti Librazhd: 1П 2Р 2З; Oriku: 0П 0Р 5З. Sopoti Librazhd е фаворит според модела.
Модел PickLab: победа на Sopoti Librazhd 61%, равенство 27%, победа на Oriku 12%. Очаквани голове: Sopoti Librazhd 2.04 – 0.73 Oriku (общо 2.8). Най-вероятен резултат: 1–1 (13%). И двата отбора вкарват: 47%. Над 2,5 гола: 49%.
Генерирано автоматично от статистическия модел на PickLab и последните резултати. Не е съвет за залагания.
Match outcome
1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles
61%Sopoti Librazhd winHighest estimate
=28%Draw
11%Oriku win
Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.
Goals & scorelines
Expected goals and market probabilities
Sopoti Librazhd2.04xG0.73Oriku
Most likely scores1–112.6%2–011.7%1–011.4%
75%Over 1.5
49%Over 2.5
29%Over 3.5
47%Both score
Test your own markets
Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.
This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 89%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
★ #284%
Sopoti Librazhd to score
The model projects 2.04 goals for Sopoti Librazhd and calculates a 84% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
★ #375%
Over 1.5 goals
The model projects 2.77 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 75%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
More selections
4
Sopoti Librazhd to win
61%
5
Sopoti Librazhd 2+ goals
56%
6
At least one team fails to score
53%
7
Oriku to score
53%
8
Under 4.5 goals
85%
Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.
League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.36) and away (1.03) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.
1.03 / 1.33Sopoti Librazhd attack / defence
0.48 / 1.67Oriku attack / defence
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.
A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.