Mingəçevir vs Baku Sportinq Prediction & Stats | Birinci Dasta

Birinci Dasta AI statistical preview

10:30

Thu 19 Nov 2026

Преглед на мача

Birinci Dasta: Mingəçevir (#8) приема Baku Sportinq (#10). Скорошна форма — Mingəçevir: 1П 0Р 4З; Baku Sportinq: 0П 0Р 5З. Mingəçevir е фаворит според модела.

Модел PickLab: победа на Mingəçevir 50%, равенство 30%, победа на Baku Sportinq 20%. Очаквани голове: Mingəçevir 1.89 – 1.21 Baku Sportinq (общо 3.1). Най-вероятен резултат: 1–1 (13%). И двата отбора вкарват: 61%. Над 2,5 гола: 57%.

Генерирано автоматично от статистическия модел на PickLab и последните резултати. Не е съвет за залагания.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

50%Mingəçevir winHighest estimate

=30%Draw

20%Baku Sportinq win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Mingəçevir1.89xG1.21Baku Sportinq

Most likely scores1–113.3%2–19%1–07.8%

81%Over 1.5

57%Over 2.5

37%Over 3.5

61%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

Open in Predictor

Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #184%

Mingəçevir to score

The model projects 1.89 goals for Mingəçevir and calculates a 84% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #281%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 3.10 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 81%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #380%

Mingəçevir or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 80%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Baku Sportinq to score

69%

Both teams to score

61%

Mingəçevir 2+ goals

55%

Mingəçevir to win

50%

Under 4.5 goals

80%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Mingəçevir

LLLLW

Scored / game: 0.60
Conceded / game: 2.40
Model sample: 20 matches

21 Oct@ Xankəndi FK1–0 15 Octvs Şimal1–4 09 Oct@ MOIK0–3 17 Sepvs Cəbrayıl0–3 10 Sep@ Səbail1–2

Baku Sportinq

LLLLL

Scored / game: 0.60
Conceded / game: 2.80
Model sample: 20 matches

22 Oct@ Şimal2–5 16 Octvs MOIK1–3 10 Oct@ Cəbrayıl0–2 17 Sepvs Səbail0–1 10 Sep@ Zaqatala0–3

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.77) and away (1.30) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

0.83 / 1.31Mingəçevir attack / defence

0.69 / 1.32Baku Sportinq attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H