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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.
- 1Benfica or DrawEstrela vs Benfica · 20:3093%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals0.96 – 2.85Estrela · Benfica1 · X · 27% · 24% · 69%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS68% · 60%Goal marketsSample17 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedAway or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 2SC Freiburg to scoreSC Freiburg vs Union Berlin · 16:3092%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.98 – 1.06SC Freiburg · Union Berlin1 · X · 265% · 20% · 15%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS73% · 64%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 3PSV Eindhoven to scoreCambuur vs PSV Eindhoven · 15:4589%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.47 – 2.25Cambuur · PSV Eindhoven1 · X · 221% · 28% · 52%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS68% · 70%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 4Over 1.5 goalsAtletico Madrid vs Barcelona · 20:0085%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.59 – 1.82Atletico Madrid · Barcelona1 · X · 227% · 29% · 43%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS63% · 68%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedCombined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 5Over 1.5 goalsUtrecht vs NEC Nijmegen · 19:0085%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.53 – 1.89Utrecht · NEC Nijmegen1 · X · 234% · 29% · 37%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS63% · 68%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedCombined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
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Real data
Official feed from API-Football: fixtures, lineups, events and statistics.
Transparent model
A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.
No invented numbers
If there is not enough data we say so instead of guessing.