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  1. 1Benfica or DrawEstrela vs Benfica · 20:3093%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals0.96 – 2.85Estrela · Benfica
    1 · X · 27% · 24% · 69%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS68% · 60%Goal markets
    Sample17 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Away or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  2. 2SC Freiburg to scoreSC Freiburg vs Union Berlin · 16:3092%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.98 – 1.06SC Freiburg · Union Berlin
    1 · X · 265% · 20% · 15%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS73% · 64%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  3. 3PSV Eindhoven to scoreCambuur vs PSV Eindhoven · 15:4589%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.47 – 2.25Cambuur · PSV Eindhoven
    1 · X · 221% · 28% · 52%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS68% · 70%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  4. 4Over 1.5 goalsAtletico Madrid vs Barcelona · 20:0085%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.59 – 1.82Atletico Madrid · Barcelona
    1 · X · 227% · 29% · 43%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS63% · 68%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Combined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  5. 5Over 1.5 goalsUtrecht vs NEC Nijmegen · 19:0085%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.53 – 1.89Utrecht · NEC Nijmegen
    1 · X · 234% · 29% · 37%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS63% · 68%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Combined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

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