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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.
- 1Benfica or DrawEstrela vs Benfica · 20:3093%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals0.96 – 2.85Estrela · Benfica1 · X · 27% · 24% · 69%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS68% · 60%Goal marketsSample17 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedAway or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 2Over 1.5 goalsAtletico Madrid vs Barcelona · 20:0085%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.58 – 1.84Atletico Madrid · Barcelona1 · X · 227% · 29% · 44%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS63% · 68%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedCombined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 3Over 1.5 goalsLens vs Marseille · 19:4584%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.67 – 1.66Lens · Marseille1 · X · 231% · 30% · 39%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS62% · 67%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedCombined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 4Lanus or DrawCentral Cordoba de Santiago vs Lanus · 22:3083%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals0.74 – 1.38Central Cordoba de Santiago · Lanus1 · X · 217% · 34% · 49%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS34% · 41%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedAway or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 5SC Braga or DrawRio Ave vs SC Braga · 20:3082%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals0.91 – 1.60Rio Ave · SC Braga1 · X · 218% · 32% · 50%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS44% · 49%Goal marketsSample19 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedAway or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
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How PickLab works
Real data
Official feed from API-Football: fixtures, lineups, events and statistics.
Transparent model
A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.
No invented numbers
If there is not enough data we say so instead of guessing.