Heracles vs Roda Prediction & Stats | Eerste Divisie

Eerste Divisie AI statistical preview

19:00

Fri 6 Nov 2026

Previa del partido

Eerste Divisie: Heracles (#1) recibe a Roda (#4). Forma reciente — Heracles: 3G 1E 1P; Roda: 4G 1E 0P. Heracles es el favorito del modelo.

Modelo PickLab: victoria de Heracles 48%, empate 30%, victoria de Roda 22%. Goles esperados: Heracles 1.82 – 1.27 Roda (total 3.1). Marcador más probable: 1–1 (13%). Ambos marcan: 61%. Más de 2,5 goles: 57%.

Generado automáticamente con el modelo estadístico de PickLab y los resultados recientes. No es un consejo de apuestas.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

48%Heracles winHighest estimate

=30%Draw

22%Roda win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Heracles1.82xG1.27Roda

Most likely scores1–113.5%2–19%1–07.7%

81%Over 1.5

57%Over 2.5

37%Over 3.5

61%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

Open in Predictor

Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #184%

Heracles to score

The model projects 1.82 goals for Heracles and calculates a 84% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #281%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 3.09 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 81%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #378%

Heracles or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 78%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Roda to score

71%

Both teams to score

61%

Heracles 2+ goals

54%

Roda or Draw

52%

Under 4.5 goals

80%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Heracles

WWDLW

Scored / game: 2.20
Conceded / game: 0.60
Model sample: 19 matches

02 Novvs FC OSS2–0 29 Oct@ De Treffers0–1 23 Oct@ NAC Breda1–1 18 Oct@ MVV5–1 09 Octvs Waalwijk3–0

Roda

DWWWW

Scored / game: 1.80
Conceded / game: 1.00
Model sample: 19 matches

30 Octvs Jong AZ2–1 27 Octvs De Graafschap1–0 23 Oct@ Almere City FC3–2 19 Oct@ Jong Utrecht2–1 09 Octvs Jong PSV U211–1

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.95) and away (1.62) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

1.33 / 0.75Heracles attack / defence

0.96 / 0.69Roda attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H