The model projects 2.47 goals for Kırşehir Belediyespor and calculates a 91% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
★ #289%
Kırşehir Belediyespor or Draw
This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 89%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
★ #386%
Over 1.5 goals
The model projects 3.58 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 86%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
More selections
4
Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
68%
5
Adana Adaletgucu to score
67%
6
Both teams to score
63%
7
Kırşehir Belediyespor to win
62%
8
Under 4.5 goals
72%
Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.
League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.57) and away (1.49) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.
0.93 / 1.24Adana Adaletgucu attack / defence
1.58 / 0.67Kırşehir Belediyespor attack / defence
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.
A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.