Inter vs Como Prediction & Stats | Serie A

Serie A AI statistical preview

17:00

Sun 8 Nov 2026

Avant-match

Serie A : Inter (#2) reçoit Como (#4). Forme récente — Inter : 4V 0N 1D ; Como : 5V 0N 0D. Le modèle voit un match équilibré, sans favori net.

Modèle PickLab : victoire de Inter 38 %, nul 30 %, victoire de Como 32 %. Buts attendus : Inter 1.58 – 1.68 Como (total 3.3). Score le plus probable : 1–1 (13 %). Les deux équipes marquent : 65 %. Plus de 2,5 buts : 60 %.

Généré automatiquement à partir du modèle statistique PickLab et des résultats récents. Ce n’est pas un conseil de paris.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

38%Inter winHighest estimate

=30%Draw

32%Como win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Inter1.58xG1.68Como

Most likely scores1–113.1%2–18.2%2–27.7%

83%Over 1.5

60%Over 2.5

40%Over 3.5

65%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

Open in Predictor

Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #183%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 3.26 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 83%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #281%

Inter to score

The model projects 1.58 goals for Inter and calculates a 81% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #379%

Como to score

The model projects 1.68 goals for Como and calculates a 79% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Inter or Draw

68%

Both teams to score

65%

Como or Draw

62%

Inter 2+ goals

49%

Under 4.5 goals

77%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Inter

WWWLW

Scored / game: 1.80
Conceded / game: 0.80
Model sample: 20 matches

03 Nov@ Feyenoord3–0 31 Oct@ AC Milan1–3 28 Oct@ Venezia2–0 25 Octvs Fiorentina2–1 21 Octvs Shakhtar Donetsk1–0

Como

WWWWW

Scored / game: 3.80
Conceded / game: 0.60
Model sample: 20 matches

04 Nov@ Lens9–1 01 Novvs Venezia1–0 27 Oct@ Torino3–1 24 Octvs Sassuolo2–0 21 Octvs Manchester United4–1

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.62) and away (1.56) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

1.40 / 0.76Inter attack / defence

1.46 / 0.69Como attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H