This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 73%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
★ #272%
Bastia to score
The model projects 1.24 goals for Bastia and calculates a 72% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
★ #369%
Over 1.5 goals
The model projects 2.39 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 69%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
More selections
4
Quevilly to score
65%
5
Quevilly or Draw
61%
6
At least one team fails to score
50%
7
Both teams to score
50%
8
Under 4.5 goals
90%
Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.
League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.33) and away (1.08) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.
0.82 / 1.20Bastia attack / defence
0.90 / 1.12Quevilly attack / defence
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.
A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.