Baku Sportinq vs Xankəndi FK Prediction & Stats | Birinci Dasta

Birinci Dasta AI statistical preview

15:00

Wed 4 Nov 2026

Avant-match

Birinci Dasta : Baku Sportinq (#10) reçoit Xankəndi FK (#7). Forme récente — Baku Sportinq : 0V 0N 5D ; Xankəndi FK : 1V 1N 3D. Le modèle voit un match équilibré, sans favori net.

Modèle PickLab : victoire de Baku Sportinq 27 %, nul 34 %, victoire de Xankəndi FK 39 %. Buts attendus : Baku Sportinq 1.10 – 1.20 Xankəndi FK (total 2.3). Score le plus probable : 1–1 (16 %). Les deux équipes marquent : 48 %. Plus de 2,5 buts : 39 %.

Généré automatiquement à partir du modèle statistique PickLab et des résultats récents. Ce n’est pas un conseil de paris.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

27%Baku Sportinq win

=34%Draw

39%Xankəndi FK winHighest estimate

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Baku Sportinq1.10xG1.20Xankəndi FK

Most likely scores1–115.5%0–013.2%0–111.7%

67%Over 1.5

39%Over 2.5

20%Over 3.5

48%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

Open in Predictor

Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #173%

Xankəndi FK or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 73%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #271%

Xankəndi FK to score

The model projects 1.20 goals for Xankəndi FK and calculates a 71% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #367%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 2.30 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 67%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Baku Sportinq to score

64%

Baku Sportinq or Draw

61%

At least one team fails to score

52%

Both teams to score

48%

Under 4.5 goals

91%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Baku Sportinq

LLLLL

Scored / game: 0.60
Conceded / game: 2.80
Model sample: 20 matches

22 Oct@ Şimal2–5 16 Octvs MOIK1–3 10 Oct@ Cəbrayıl0–2 17 Sepvs Səbail0–1 10 Sep@ Zaqatala0–3

Xankəndi FK

LLDWL

Scored / game: 0.60
Conceded / game: 1.20
Model sample: 8 matches

21 Octvs Mingəçevir0–1 15 Octvs Şahdağ1–009 Oct@ Şimal1–1 18 Sepvs MOIK0–2 10 Sep@ Cəbrayıl1–2

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.77) and away (1.30) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

0.65 / 1.30Baku Sportinq attack / defence

0.69 / 0.82Xankəndi FK attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H

Match info

Date: Wednesday 4 November 2026
Kick-off: 15:00
Competition: Birinci Dasta

Open match center

Provider analysis

API-Football

110%X45%245%

Form

100%

50%

Attack

50%

30%

Defence

70%

Head to head

31.3%

Overall

68.7%

Independent of the PickLab model. Compare both views.

Model track record

138 graded

48%1X2 correct

67%Over 2.5 correct

80%Top-3 picks hit (avg. predicted 82%)

+5.3%Brier skill vs. base rates

✗Zira 3–2 SumqayıtUnder 4.5 goals

✓Al Karkh 1–1 MosulAl Karkh to score

✓Nigeria U17 W 3–1 North Korea U17 WNorth Korea U17 W to score

✓Pyunik Yerevan 3–0 GandzasarPyunik Yerevan or Draw

✓Puerto Rico W U17 2–6 Poland U17 WPuerto Rico W U17 to score

✓Sassuolo U20 2–2 Torino U20Over 1.5 goals

✓Spartak Pleven 2–1 Etar Veliko TarnovoOver 1.5 goals

✓Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 2–0 Pirin BlagoevgradLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa or Draw

✓Beroe 3–1 Rilski SportistUnder 4.5 goals

✓East Riffa 0–1 MuharraqUnder 4.5 goals

✗Al Shamal 2–3 Qatar SCUnder 4.5 goals

✓Al Salt 0–0 Al RamthaUnder 4.5 goals

Model variants log-loss, lower is better

1.045Final model

1.030Base Poisson

1.255API-Football alone (86 matches)

1.045Final model (same 86)

Unedited: predictions are stored before kick-off and graded on the 90-minute score. Brier skill compares against always predicting average league outcomes (45% / 27% / 28%).