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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.

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  1. 1Over 1.5 goalsFC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg · 14:3092%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.75 – 1.69FC Augsburg · SC Freiburg
    1 · X · 247% · 25% · 28%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS78% · 77%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Combined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  2. 2Over 1.5 goalsWerder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 14:3091%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.69 – 1.57Werder Bremen · 1899 Hoffenheim
    1 · X · 248% · 25% · 27%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS76% · 75%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Combined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  3. 3Chelsea to scoreChelsea vs Manchester United · 12:3091%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.45 – 1.57Chelsea · Manchester United
    1 · X · 253% · 27% · 20%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS73% · 73%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  4. 4Barcelona to scoreBarcelona vs Alaves · 20:0090%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.48 – 1.03Barcelona · Alaves
    1 · X · 262% · 25% · 12%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS64% · 60%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  5. 5FC Porto or DrawFC Porto vs Estoril · 20:3090%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.69 – 0.68FC Porto · Estoril
    1 · X · 258% · 32% · 10%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS40% · 42%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Home or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

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