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Serie A76′
Gremio2
Atletico Paranaense0

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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.

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  1. 1Sporting CP or DrawCasa Pia vs Sporting CP · 20:1591%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals0.73 – 2.44Casa Pia · Sporting CP
    1 · X · 29% · 24% · 67%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS57% · 49%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Away or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  2. 2Over 1.5 goalsSV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 · 19:3091%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.99 – 2.16SV Elversberg · FSV Mainz 05
    1 · X · 230% · 27% · 43%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS75% · 77%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Combined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  3. 3Villarreal to scoreVillarreal vs Espanyol · 20:0086%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.02 – 1.31Villarreal · Espanyol
    1 · X · 251% · 29% · 20%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS61% · 64%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  4. 4Paris Saint Germain to scoreLe Havre vs Paris Saint Germain · 18:0085%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.32 – 1.88Le Havre · Paris Saint Germain
    1 · X · 220% · 31% · 50%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS59% · 63%Goal markets
    Sample19 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  5. 5Sheffield Utd or DrawSheffield Utd vs Wrexham · 20:0083%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.51 – 0.84Sheffield Utd · Wrexham
    1 · X · 250% · 33% · 17%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS40% · 46%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Home or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

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