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USL Championship AI statistical preview

Match preview

USL Championship: Loudoun United (#10) host Brooklyn (#12). Recent form — Loudoun United: 2W 2D 1L; Brooklyn: 1W 1D 3L. Loudoun United is the model’s favourite.

PickLab model: Loudoun United win 49%, draw 30%, Brooklyn win 21%. Expected goals: Loudoun United 1.81 – 1.19 Brooklyn (total 3.0). Most likely score: 1–1 (14%). Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%.

Generated automatically from the PickLab statistical model and recent results. Not betting advice.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles
49%Loudoun United winHighest estimate
=30%Draw
21%Brooklyn win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities
Loudoun United1.81xG1.19Brooklyn
Most likely scores1–113.7%2–19%1–08.3%
79%Over 1.5
55%Over 2.5
35%Over 3.5
59%Both score

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Form & trends

Last completed matches

How this prediction is built

  1. League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.49) and away (1.22) per match.
  2. Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
  3. Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
  4. Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
  5. Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
  6. Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.
0.81 / 1.09Loudoun United attack / defence
0.89 / 1.59Brooklyn attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H