CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia Prediction & Stats | First League

First League AI statistical preview

17:30

Sat 31 Oct 2026

Match preview

First League: CSKA Sofia (#1) host Slavia Sofia (#8). Recent form — CSKA Sofia: 3W 1D 1L; Slavia Sofia: 2W 1D 2L. CSKA Sofia is the model’s favourite.

PickLab model: CSKA Sofia win 48%, draw 32%, Slavia Sofia win 20%. Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.53 – 0.99 Slavia Sofia (total 2.5). Most likely score: 1–1 (15%). Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%.

Generated automatically from the PickLab statistical model and recent results. Not betting advice.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

48%CSKA Sofia winHighest estimate

=32%Draw

20%Slavia Sofia win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

CSKA Sofia1.53xG0.99Slavia Sofia

Most likely scores1–114.8%1–011.4%0–011.2%

71%Over 1.5

44%Over 2.5

25%Over 3.5

50%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

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Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #180%

CSKA Sofia or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 80%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #278%

CSKA Sofia to score

The model projects 1.53 goals for CSKA Sofia and calculates a 78% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #371%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 2.52 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 71%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Slavia Sofia to score

61%

Slavia Sofia or Draw

52%

Both teams to score

50%

At least one team fails to score

50%

Under 4.5 goals

89%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

CSKA Sofia

WLWDW

Scored / game: 2.00
Conceded / game: 1.20
Model sample: 20 matches

26 Octvs Ludogorets2–0 22 Oct@ FC Nordsjaelland2–2 18 Oct@ Nesebar2–0 15 Octvs Monaco1–2 11 Oct@ CSKA 19483–2

Slavia Sofia

LWLWD

Scored / game: 1.20
Conceded / game: 0.80
Model sample: 18 matches

26 Oct@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv0–0 17 Oct@ Akademik Svishtov3–0 10 Oct@ Botev Plovdiv0–1 03 Octvs Botev Vratsa2–1 18 Sepvs CSKA 19481–2

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.56) and away (1.18) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

1.59 / 0.82CSKA Sofia attack / defence

0.97 / 0.61Slavia Sofia attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H