J3 League AI statistical preview
OsakaWLLDL
10:00
Wed 21 Oct 2026
Nara ClubWWWWW

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson model
44%Osaka winHighest estimate
=23%Draw
33%Nara Club win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities
Osaka1.74xG1.49Nara Club
Most likely scores1–110.2%2–18.9%1–27.7%
83%Over 1.5
63%Over 2.5
40%Over 3.5
64%Both score

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Osaka

WLLDL
Scored / game
1.40
Conceded / game
1.40
Model sample
20 matches
17 Oct@ Kitakyushu1–309 Octvs Kanazawa1–103 Oct@ Sagamihara0–129 Sepvs Avispa Fukuoka1–226 Sep@ Kochi United4–0

Nara Club

WWWWW
Scored / game
2.20
Conceded / game
0.60
Model sample
20 matches
17 Oct@ Kanazawa1–010 Octvs Kitakyushu2–003 Oct@ Parceiro Nagano1–026 Sepvs Biwako Shiga4–119 Sep@ Gainare Tottori3–2

How this prediction is built

  1. Recent results. Last 20 completed matches of each team, weighted so newer matches count more.
  2. Home and away form. Goals scored and conceded are weighted by venue.
  3. Poisson goal model. Expected goals for both sides generate a probability for every scoreline up to 12–12.
  4. Markets. Probabilities for 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score come from that scoreline grid.

A simple statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H

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