Eldense vs Sabadell Prediction & Stats | Segunda División

17:30

Sun 15 Nov 2026

Match preview

Segunda División: Eldense (#16) host Sabadell (#13). Recent form — Eldense: 2W 0D 3L; Sabadell: 1W 2D 2L. The model sees a balanced match with no clear favourite.

PickLab model: Eldense win 35%, draw 37%, Sabadell win 28%. Expected goals: Eldense 0.93 – 0.95 Sabadell (total 1.9). Most likely score: 0–0 (19%). Both teams to score: 38%. Over 2.5 goals: 28%.

Generated automatically from the PickLab statistical model and recent results. Not betting advice.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

35%Eldense win

=37%DrawHighest estimate

28%Sabadell win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Eldense0.93xG0.95Sabadell

Most likely scores0–018.5%1–115.2%1–014.5%

56%Over 1.5

28%Over 2.5

12%Over 3.5

38%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

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Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #173%

Eldense or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 73%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #265%

Sabadell or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 65%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #363%

Eldense to score

The model projects 0.93 goals for Eldense and calculates a 63% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

At least one team fails to score

62%

Sabadell to score

57%

Over 1.5 goals

56%

Both teams to score

38%

Under 4.5 goals

96%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Eldense

WLWLL

Scored / game: 0.80
Conceded / game: 1.60
Model sample: 20 matches

09 Nov@ Las Palmas0–2 01 Novvs Granada CF0–2 29 Oct@ Atlético Baleares1–0 25 Oct@ Albacete0–2 18 Oct@ Valladolid3–2

Sabadell

WLDLD

Scored / game: 0.80
Conceded / game: 1.00
Model sample: 19 matches

09 Novvs Real Sociedad II0–0 31 Oct@ Albacete1–2 25 Octvs Tenerife1–1 18 Oct@ Burgos0–1 10 Oct@ AD Ceuta FC2–1

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.56) and away (1.19) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

0.76 / 1.05Eldense attack / defence

0.70 / 0.66Sabadell attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H