Levante vs Athletic Club Prediction & Stats | La Liga

La Liga AI statistical preview

LevanteDLLDD

18:00

Wed 21 Oct 2026

Athletic ClubWDDWD

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

28%Levante win

=26%Draw

46%Athletic Club winHighest estimate

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Levante1.23xG1.64Athletic Club

Most likely scores1–112.3%1–29.4%0–18.3%

79%Over 1.5

55%Over 2.5

33%Over 3.5

58%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

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Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #181%

Athletic Club to score

The model projects 1.64 goals for Athletic Club and calculates a 81% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #279%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 2.88 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 79%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #372%

Athletic Club or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 72%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Levante to score

71%

Both teams to score

58%

Levante or Draw

54%

Athletic Club 2+ goals

49%

Under 4.5 goals

84%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Levante

DLLDD

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 2.20
Model sample: 20 matches

16 Oct@ Deportivo La Coruna1–1 12 Octvs Sevilla3–3 20 Sep@ Villarreal1–3 13 Sepvs Barcelona2–4 06 Sep@ Malaga0–0

Athletic Club

WDDWD

Scored / game: 1.00
Conceded / game: 0.20
Model sample: 19 matches

17 Oct@ Valencia0–0 02 Oct@ Real Sociedad1–0 19 Sepvs Alaves0–0 12 Sepvs Elche1–1 05 Sepvs Atletico Madrid3–0

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.72) and away (1.35) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

1.07 / 1.15Levante attack / defence

1.13 / 0.60Athletic Club attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H