Bastia vs Quevilly Prediction & Stats | Ligue 3

Ligue 3 AI statistical preview

13:45

Sat 31 Oct 2026

Match preview

Ligue 3: Bastia (#13) host Quevilly (#11). Recent form — Bastia: 1W 3D 1L; Quevilly: 2W 2D 1L. The model sees a balanced match with no clear favourite.

PickLab model: Bastia win 39%, draw 34%, Quevilly win 27%. Expected goals: Bastia 1.24 – 1.14 Quevilly (total 2.4). Most likely score: 1–1 (15%). Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%.

Generated automatically from the PickLab statistical model and recent results. Not betting advice.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

39%Bastia winHighest estimate

=34%Draw

27%Quevilly win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Bastia1.24xG1.14Quevilly

Most likely scores1–115.4%0–012.3%1–011.1%

69%Over 1.5

41%Over 2.5

22%Over 3.5

50%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

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Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #173%

Bastia or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 73%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #272%

Bastia to score

The model projects 1.24 goals for Bastia and calculates a 72% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #369%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 2.39 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 69%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Quevilly to score

65%

Quevilly or Draw

61%

At least one team fails to score

50%

Both teams to score

50%

Under 4.5 goals

90%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Bastia

WDLDD

Scored / game: 0.80
Conceded / game: 0.80
Model sample: 20 matches

17 Oct@ Concarneau1–1 01 Octvs Orleans1–1 26 Sep@ Gobelins0–1 17 Sepvs Cannes1–1 12 Sep@ Bourg-en-bresse 011–0

Quevilly

WDDLW

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 1.40
Model sample: 20 matches

17 Octvs Orleans3–2 03 Oct@ Cannes1–3 26 Sepvs Amiens1–1 19 Sep@ Versailles0–0 12 Sepvs Le Puy Foot2–1

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.33) and away (1.08) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

0.82 / 1.20Bastia attack / defence

0.90 / 1.12Quevilly attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H