Bundesliga AI statistical preview

Match preview

Bundesliga: FSV Mainz 05 (#5) host Werder Bremen (#8). Recent form — FSV Mainz 05: 3W 0D 2L; Werder Bremen: 1W 3D 1L. FSV Mainz 05 is the model’s favourite.

PickLab model: FSV Mainz 05 win 61%, draw 21%, Werder Bremen win 18%. Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 3.58 – 1.36 Werder Bremen (total 4.9). Most likely score: 1–1 (7%). Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 82%.

Generated automatically from the PickLab statistical model and recent results. Not betting advice.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles
61%FSV Mainz 05 winHighest estimate
=20%Draw
19%Werder Bremen win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities
FSV Mainz 053.58xG1.36Werder Bremen
Most likely scores1–16.8%2–26.7%3–15.6%
94%Over 1.5
82%Over 2.5
68%Over 3.5
74%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

Open in Predictor

Form & trends

Last completed matches

How this prediction is built

  1. League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (2.28) and away (1.41) per match.
  2. Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
  3. Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
  4. Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
  5. Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
  6. Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.
1.70 / 0.84FSV Mainz 05 attack / defence
1.14 / 1.08Werder Bremen attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H