3. Lig - Group 3 AI statistical preview

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles
31%Mazıdağı Fosfatspor win
=36%DrawHighest estimate
33%Bitlis Özgüzelderespor win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor0.88xG1.13Bitlis Özgüzelderespor
Most likely scores0–016.7%1–115.2%1–012.5%
59%Over 1.5
31%Over 2.5
15%Over 3.5
41%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

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Form & trends

Last completed matches

How this prediction is built

  1. League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.57) and away (1.49) per match.
  2. Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
  3. Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
  4. Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
  5. Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
  6. Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.
1.02 / 0.48Mazıdağı Fosfatspor attack / defence
1.43 / 0.45Bitlis Özgüzelderespor attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H