This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 69%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
★ #267%
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor or Draw
This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 67%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
★ #363%
Bitlis Özgüzelderespor to score
The model projects 1.13 goals for Bitlis Özgüzelderespor and calculates a 63% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
More selections
4
Mazıdağı Fosfatspor to score
62%
5
Over 1.5 goals
59%
6
At least one team fails to score
59%
7
Both teams to score
41%
8
Under 4.5 goals
94%
Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.
League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.57) and away (1.49) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.