Nyva Ternopil II vs Bratslav Vinnytsia Prediction & Stats | Druha Liga

Druha Liga AI statistical preview

11:00

Fri 23 Oct 2026

Match preview

Druha Liga: Nyva Ternopil II (#7) host Bratslav Vinnytsia (#1). Recent form — Nyva Ternopil II: 1W 2D 2L; Bratslav Vinnytsia: 3W 2D 0L. Bratslav Vinnytsia is the model’s favourite.

PickLab model: Nyva Ternopil II win 11%, draw 27%, Bratslav Vinnytsia win 62%. Expected goals: Nyva Ternopil II 0.75 – 2.08 Bratslav Vinnytsia (total 2.8). Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%.

Generated automatically from the PickLab statistical model and recent results. Not betting advice.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

11%Nyva Ternopil II win

=27%Draw

62%Bratslav Vinnytsia winHighest estimate

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Nyva Ternopil II0.75xG2.08Bratslav Vinnytsia

Most likely scores1–112.5%0–211.5%0–111%

76%Over 1.5

50%Over 2.5

30%Over 3.5

48%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

Open in Predictor

Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #189%

Bratslav Vinnytsia or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 89%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #285%

Bratslav Vinnytsia to score

The model projects 2.08 goals for Bratslav Vinnytsia and calculates a 85% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #376%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 2.82 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 76%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Bratslav Vinnytsia to win

62%

Bratslav Vinnytsia 2+ goals

57%

Nyva Ternopil II to score

53%

At least one team fails to score

52%

Under 4.5 goals

85%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Nyva Ternopil II

WLLDD

Scored / game: 0.80
Conceded / game: 1.00
Model sample: 19 matches

17 Oct@ Dnister Zalishchyky1–1 09 Octvs Vilkhivtsi0–0 03 Octvs Dinaz Vyshhorod1–2 25 Sepvs Podillya Khmelnytskyi1–2 14 Sepvs Ruh Lviv1–0

Bratslav Vinnytsia

DWWWD

Scored / game: 2.80
Conceded / game: 1.20
Model sample: 11 matches

18 Octvs Vilkhivtsi0–0 10 Oct@ Podillya Khmelnytskyi5–1 04 Oct@ Ruh Lviv3–2 26 Sepvs Skala 1911 Stryi3–0 19 Sep@ Dnister Zalishchyky3–3

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.40) and away (1.44) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

0.61 / 1.10Nyva Ternopil II attack / defence

1.48 / 0.71Bratslav Vinnytsia attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H