Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus Prediction & Stats | Serie B

Serie B AI statistical preview

EmpoliWLLLD

18:30

Fri 23 Oct 2026

Vicenza VirtusDLLLD

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson model

39%Empoli winHighest estimate

=24%Draw

37%Vicenza Virtus win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Empoli1.54xG1.48Vicenza Virtus

Most likely scores1–111.1%2–18.6%1–28.2%

80%Over 1.5

58%Over 2.5

36%Over 3.5

61%Both score

Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #181%

Under 4.5 goals

Although the model projects 3.02 goals, it assigns 81% to matches finishing with four goals or fewer. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #280%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 3.02 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 80%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #379%

Empoli to score

The model projects 1.54 goals for Empoli and calculates a 79% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Vicenza Virtus to score

77%

Empoli or Draw

63%

Vicenza Virtus or Draw

61%

Both teams to score

61%

Empoli 2+ goals

46%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Empoli

WLLLD

Scored / game: 1.00
Conceded / game: 1.60
Model sample: 19 matches

17 Oct@ Ascoli1–1 10 Octvs Palermo2–4 20 Sep@ Modena1–2 11 Sepvs Arezzo0–1 05 Sep@ Carrarese1–0

Vicenza Virtus

DLLLD

Scored / game: 1.00
Conceded / game: 2.00
Model sample: 20 matches

17 Oct@ Benevento2–2 10 Octvs Pisa0–3 03 Oct@ Koper1–2 20 Sep@ Hellas Verona1–2 12 Sepvs Juve Stabia1–1

How this prediction is built

Recent results. Last 20 completed matches of each team, weighted so newer matches count more.
Home and away form. Goals scored and conceded are weighted by venue.
Poisson goal model. Expected goals for both sides generate a probability for every scoreline up to 12–12.
Markets. Probabilities for 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score come from that scoreline grid.

A simple statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H