Roda vs Eldense B Prediction & Stats | Tercera División RFEF - Group 6

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 AI statistical preview

17:00

Sat 31 Oct 2026

Match preview

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Roda (#9) host Eldense B (#7). Recent form — Roda: 1W 3D 1L; Eldense B: 1W 2D 2L. The model sees a balanced match with no clear favourite.

PickLab model: Roda win 43%, draw 36%, Eldense B win 21%. Expected goals: Roda 1.14 – 0.81 Eldense B (total 2.0). Most likely score: 0–0 (17%). Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%.

Generated automatically from the PickLab statistical model and recent results. Not betting advice.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

43%Roda winHighest estimate

=36%Draw

21%Eldense B win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Roda1.14xG0.81Eldense B

Most likely scores0–017.4%1–015.4%1–115%

58%Over 1.5

30%Over 2.5

14%Over 3.5

39%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

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Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #179%

Roda or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 79%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #268%

Roda to score

The model projects 1.14 goals for Roda and calculates a 68% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #361%

At least one team fails to score

The model estimates this outcome at 61%, based on recent completed fixtures and its Poisson goal distribution. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Over 1.5 goals

58%

Eldense B or Draw

57%

Eldense B to score

53%

Both teams to score

39%

Under 4.5 goals

95%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Roda

DDWDL

Scored / game: 1.20
Conceded / game: 1.00
Model sample: 20 matches

24 Oct@ Atzeneta1–2 10 Oct@ Jove Español1–1 03 Octvs SC Torrevieja2–0 27 Sep@ Utiel1–1 19 Sepvs Crevillente1–1

Eldense B

WLDDL

Scored / game: 1.20
Conceded / game: 1.20
Model sample: 9 matches

24 Octvs Soneja2–3 17 Oct@ Acero1–1 11 Octvs Vall de Uxó0–003 Oct@ Hércules II0–1 26 Sepvs Torrent3–1

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.27) and away (1.06) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

1.01 / 0.93Roda attack / defence

0.75 / 0.85Eldense B attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H