Charlton Athletic U21 vs Cardiff City U21 Prediction & Stats | Professional Development League

Professional Development League AI statistical preview

12:30

Fri 23 Oct 2026

Match preview

Professional Development League: Charlton Athletic U21 (#10) host Cardiff City U21 (#8). Recent form — Charlton Athletic U21: 2W 2D 1L; Cardiff City U21: 2W 2D 1L. The model sees a balanced match with no clear favourite.

PickLab model: Charlton Athletic U21 win 32%, draw 31%, Cardiff City U21 win 37%. Expected goals: Charlton Athletic U21 1.57 – 1.47 Cardiff City U21 (total 3.0). Most likely score: 1–1 (14%). Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%.

Generated automatically from the PickLab statistical model and recent results. Not betting advice.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

32%Charlton Athletic U21 win

=31%Draw

37%Cardiff City U21 winHighest estimate

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Charlton Athletic U211.57xG1.47Cardiff City U21

Most likely scores1–113.9%1–28.4%0–07.5%

80%Over 1.5

56%Over 2.5

36%Over 3.5

62%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

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Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #180%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 3.04 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 80%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #278%

Cardiff City U21 to score

The model projects 1.47 goals for Cardiff City U21 and calculates a 78% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #376%

Charlton Athletic U21 to score

The model projects 1.57 goals for Charlton Athletic U21 and calculates a 76% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Cardiff City U21 or Draw

68%

Charlton Athletic U21 or Draw

63%

Both teams to score

62%

Cardiff City U21 2+ goals

45%

Under 4.5 goals

81%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Charlton Athletic U21

DWWLD

Scored / game: 1.80
Conceded / game: 1.80
Model sample: 20 matches

09 Oct@ Stoke City U212–2 06 Oct@ Bristol City U211–4 29 Sepvs Millwall U211–0 22 Sepvs Sheffield United U213–1 13 Sep@ Sheffield Wednesday U212–2

Cardiff City U21

WDWLD

Scored / game: 2.40
Conceded / game: 1.40
Model sample: 19 matches

13 Oct@ Queens Park Rangers U211–1 09 Octvs Leicester City U211–3 18 Sepvs Peterborough United U216–0 14 Sep@ Sheffield United U211–1 07 Sep@ Plymouth U213–2

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (2.07) and away (1.76) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

0.86 / 0.81Charlton Athletic U21 attack / defence

0.97 / 0.80Cardiff City U21 attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H

Match info

Date: Friday 23 October 2026
Kick-off: 12:30
Competition: Professional Development League

Open match center

Provider analysis

API-Football

110%X45%245%

47%

Form

53%

41%

Attack

59%

31%

Defence

69%

20%

Head to head

80%

37.5%

Overall

62.5%

Independent of the PickLab model. Compare both views.

Model track record

13 graded

54%1X2 correct

62%Over 2.5 correct

72%Top-3 picks hit (avg. predicted 83%)

-1.5%Brier skill vs. base rates

✓Xankəndi FK 0–1 MingəçevirUnder 4.5 goals

✓Şahdağ 1–0 SəbailUnder 4.5 goals

✓Como U19 2–1 Manchester United U19Over 1.5 goals

✗FC Tokyo 0–0 Kashiwa ReysolFC Tokyo to score

✗Respublika FA 0–2 Pakhtakor IIRespublika FA or Draw

✓Nojima Stella W 1–0 Albirex Niigata WUnder 4.5 goals

✗Karpaty Lviv U19 0–0 Metalist 1925 U19Karpaty Lviv U19 to score

✓Kolos Kovalivka U19 1–3 Lviv U19Kolos Kovalivka U19 to score

✓Bali United 5–0 GarudayaksaBali United to score

✓Livyi Bereh U19 3–2 SK Metalurh U19Livyi Bereh U19 to score

✓Olimpia Cluj W 3–0 Univ. Craiova WOlimpia Cluj W to score

✗Dome 0–7 Sisaket UnitedUnder 4.5 goals

Unedited: predictions are stored before kick-off and graded on the 90-minute score. Brier skill compares against always predicting average league outcomes (45% / 27% / 28%).