Sporting CP vs Lask Linz Prediction & Stats | UEFA Champions League

UEFA Champions League AI statistical preview

Sporting CPWDDWW

19:00

Wed 21 Oct 2026

Lask LinzDWLLW

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson model

54%Sporting CP winHighest estimate

=20%Draw

26%Lask Linz win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Sporting CP2.32xG1.61Lask Linz

Most likely scores2–18.5%1–17.4%2–26.8%

90%Over 1.5

75%Over 2.5

55%Over 3.5

72%Both score

Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #190%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 3.92 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 90%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #290%

Sporting CP to score

The model projects 2.32 goals for Sporting CP and calculates a 90% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #380%

Lask Linz to score

The model projects 1.61 goals for Lask Linz and calculates a 80% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Over 2.5 goals

75%

Sporting CP or Draw

73%

Both teams to score

72%

Sporting CP 2+ goals

67%

Sporting CP to win

54%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Sporting CP

WDDWW

Scored / game: 2.20
Conceded / game: 1.00
Model sample: 20 matches

13 Oct@ Lens2–0 09 Oct@ SC Braga3–1 19 Sepvs Arouca2–2 13 Sep@ Famalicao1–1 09 Sepvs Galatasaray3–1

Lask Linz

DWLLW

Scored / game: 2.40
Conceded / game: 2.40
Model sample: 20 matches

17 Oct@ Austria Lustenau4–0 14 Octvs Liverpool3–6 11 Octvs Rapid Vienna0–2 02 Octvs First Vienna2–1 20 Sep@ TSV Hartberg3–3

How this prediction is built

Recent results. Last 20 completed matches of each team, weighted so newer matches count more.
Home and away form. Goals scored and conceded are weighted by venue.
Poisson goal model. Expected goals for both sides generate a probability for every scoreline up to 12–12.
Markets. Probabilities for 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score come from that scoreline grid.

A simple statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H