UEFA Europa League AI statistical preview

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson model
52%Ferencvarosi TC winHighest estimate
=25%Draw
23%Torreense win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities
Ferencvarosi TC1.64xG1.01Torreense
Most likely scores1–111.7%1–011.5%2–19.6%
74%Over 1.5
50%Over 2.5
28%Over 3.5
51%Both score

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Ferencvarosi TC

WDDWD
Scored / game
1.60
Conceded / game
1.00
Model sample
20 matches
18 Oct@ Kisvarda FC1–115 Octvs Plzen2–110 Octvs Debreceni VSC1–120 Sep@ Nyiregyhaza1–117 Sep@ Celtic3–1

How this prediction is built

  1. Recent results. Last 20 completed matches of each team, weighted so newer matches count more.
  2. Home and away form. Goals scored and conceded are weighted by venue.
  3. Poisson goal model. Expected goals for both sides generate a probability for every scoreline up to 12–12.
  4. Markets. Probabilities for 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score come from that scoreline grid.

A simple statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H