Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.
Goals & scorelines
Expected goals and market probabilities
Ajax2.18xG1.37Atalanta
Most likely scores2–19.3%1–18.6%2–06.8%
87%Over 1.5
69%Over 2.5
47%Over 3.5
66%Both score
Top 3 featured picks
Highest-probability markets
★ #189%
Ajax to score
The model projects 2.18 goals for Ajax and calculates a 89% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
★ #287%
Over 1.5 goals
The model projects 3.55 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 87%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
★ #376%
Ajax or Draw
This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 76%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
More selections
4
Atalanta to score
75%
5
Under 4.5 goals
72%
6
Both teams to score
66%
7
Ajax 2+ goals
64%
8
Ajax to win
56%
Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.