Aluminium Arak vs ZOB Ahan Prediction & Stats | Persian Gulf Pro League

Persian Gulf Pro League AI statistical preview

12:30

Fri 23 Oct 2026

Match preview

Persian Gulf Pro League: Aluminium Arak (#6) host ZOB Ahan (#15). Recent form — Aluminium Arak: 1W 2D 2L; ZOB Ahan: 1W 1D 3L. Aluminium Arak is the model’s favourite.

PickLab model: Aluminium Arak win 50%, draw 35%, ZOB Ahan win 15%. Expected goals: Aluminium Arak 1.29 – 0.64 ZOB Ahan (total 1.9). Most likely score: 0–0 (18%). Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 30%.

Generated automatically from the PickLab statistical model and recent results. Not betting advice.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

50%Aluminium Arak winHighest estimate

=35%Draw

15%ZOB Ahan win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Aluminium Arak1.29xG0.64ZOB Ahan

Most likely scores0–017.9%1–017.2%1–113.9%

57%Over 1.5

30%Over 2.5

13%Over 3.5

36%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

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Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #185%

Aluminium Arak or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 85%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #271%

Aluminium Arak to score

The model projects 1.29 goals for Aluminium Arak and calculates a 71% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #364%

At least one team fails to score

The model estimates this outcome at 64%, based on recent completed fixtures and its Poisson goal distribution. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Over 1.5 goals

57%

ZOB Ahan or Draw

50%

ZOB Ahan to score

46%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

36%

Under 4.5 goals

95%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Aluminium Arak

WDDLL

Scored / game: 1.00
Conceded / game: 1.00
Model sample: 18 matches

17 Oct@ Sanat Naft1–2 13 Oct@ Fajr Sepasi1–2 08 Octvs Malavan1–1 06 Sepvs Esteghlal FC0–0 01 Sep@ Gol Gohar2–0

ZOB Ahan

WLDLL

Scored / game: 0.80
Conceded / game: 1.40
Model sample: 17 matches

18 Octvs Chadormalu SC1–2 13 Octvs Sepahan FC1–2 08 Oct@ Nassaji Mazandaran1–1 07 Sep@ Persepolis FC0–2 02 Sepvs Paykan1–0

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.11) and away (0.84) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

1.07 / 1.00Aluminium Arak attack / defence

0.70 / 1.15ZOB Ahan attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H