US Open Cup AI statistical preview
Columbus CrewWWLWW
00:00
Thu 22 Oct 2026
St. Louis CityWWWDL

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson model
33%Columbus Crew win
=23%Draw
44%St. Louis City winHighest estimate

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities
Columbus Crew1.54xG1.81St. Louis City
Most likely scores1–19.8%1–28.9%2–17.5%
85%Over 1.5
65%Over 2.5
43%Over 3.5
66%Both score

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Columbus Crew

WWLWW
Scored / game
2.20
Conceded / game
1.00
Model sample
20 matches
18 Oct@ FC Cincinnati2–014 Octvs Charlotte3–110 Oct@ Orlando City SC2–327 Sepvs Inter Miami2–119 Sep@ CF Montreal2–0

St. Louis City

WWWDL
Scored / game
2.80
Conceded / game
1.20
Model sample
20 matches
17 Oct@ Minnesota United FC2–315 Octvs Vancouver Whitecaps0–011 Octvs Los Angeles Galaxy6–230 Sep@ New York Red Bulls3–020 Sepvs Toronto FC3–1

How this prediction is built

  1. Recent results. Last 20 completed matches of each team, weighted so newer matches count more.
  2. Home and away form. Goals scored and conceded are weighted by venue.
  3. Poisson goal model. Expected goals for both sides generate a probability for every scoreline up to 12–12.
  4. Markets. Probabilities for 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score come from that scoreline grid.

A simple statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H

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