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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.
- 1Almeria to scoreAlmeria vs FC Andorra · 17:3087%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.07 – 0.89Almeria · FC Andorra1 · X · 263% · 22% · 14%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS56% · 52%Goal marketsSample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 2Mallorca or DrawMallorca vs Cordoba · 17:3083%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.74 – 0.83Mallorca · Cordoba1 · X · 258% · 26% · 17%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS47% · 47%Goal marketsSample19 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedHome or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 3Vasco DA Gama to scoreChapecoense-sc vs Vasco DA Gama · 23:3083%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.09 – 1.82Chapecoense-sc · Vasco DA Gama1 · X · 222% · 25% · 53%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS55% · 56%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 4Monterrey to scoreClub Queretaro vs Monterrey · 23:0080%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.34 – 1.65Club Queretaro · Monterrey1 · X · 230% · 26% · 44%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS57% · 60%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 5Over 1.5 goalsReal Sociedad II vs Sporting Gijon · 15:1575%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.39 – 1.33Real Sociedad II · Sporting Gijon1 · X · 237% · 28% · 35%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS51% · 56%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedCombined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
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Real data
Official feed from API-Football: fixtures, lineups, events and statistics.
Transparent model
A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.
No invented numbers
If there is not enough data we say so instead of guessing.