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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.
- 1Toulouse to scoreToulouse vs Strasbourg · 19:4586%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.02 – 1.46Toulouse · Strasbourg1 · X · 248% · 29% · 23%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS64% · 67%Goal marketsSample19 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 2PEC Zwolle to scoreWillem II vs PEC Zwolle · 19:0086%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.35 – 1.92Willem II · PEC Zwolle1 · X · 219% · 31% · 50%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS60% · 64%Goal marketsSample19 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 3Oxford City to scoreOxford City vs Leicester · 19:4585%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.93 – 1.27Oxford City · Leicester1 · X · 253% · 22% · 25%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS62% · 61%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 4Velez Sarsfield to scoreUnion Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield · 22:1581%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.36 – 1.64Union Santa Fe · Velez Sarsfield1 · X · 226% · 31% · 43%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS55% · 61%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 5Sevilla to scoreSevilla vs Alaves · 20:0080%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.66 – 1.06Sevilla · Alaves1 · X · 249% · 31% · 20%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS49% · 54%Goal marketsSample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
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Real data
Official feed from API-Football: fixtures, lineups, events and statistics.
Transparent model
A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.
No invented numbers
If there is not enough data we say so instead of guessing.