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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.
- 1FC Lugano to scoreFC Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris · 20:0090%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.48 – 1.21FC Lugano · Kauno Žalgiris1 · X · 259% · 26% · 15%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS67% · 65%Goal marketsSample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 2Benfica to scoreBenfica vs Lech Poznan · 20:0089%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.26 – 1.36Benfica · Lech Poznan1 · X · 255% · 29% · 16%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS66% · 67%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 3Bayer Leverkusen to scoreBayer Leverkusen vs Marseille · 20:0088%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.15 – 1.35Bayer Leverkusen · Marseille1 · X · 254% · 29% · 17%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS64% · 66%Goal marketsSample19 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 4FC Copenhagen or DrawFC Copenhagen vs FC Iberia 1999 · 20:0088%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.96 – 0.77FC Copenhagen · FC Iberia 19991 · X · 259% · 28% · 12%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS48% · 48%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedHome or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 5Twente or DrawTwente vs Pafos · 20:0087%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.12 – 0.89Twente · Pafos1 · X · 260% · 27% · 13%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS54% · 53%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedHome or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
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Real data
Official feed from API-Football: fixtures, lineups, events and statistics.
Transparent model
A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.
No invented numbers
If there is not enough data we say so instead of guessing.