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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.
- 1FC Augsburg to scoreFC Augsburg vs Union Berlin · 13:3095%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals3.32 – 1.52FC Augsburg · Union Berlin1 · X · 265% · 22% · 13%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS82% · 76%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 2Over 1.5 goalsFSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen · 13:3094%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals3.58 – 1.45FSV Mainz 05 · Werder Bremen1 · X · 260% · 21% · 19%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS83% · 76%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedCombined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 3Borussia Dortmund to scoreBorussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 16:3090%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.35 – 1.53Borussia Dortmund · Eintracht Frankfurt1 · X · 253% · 27% · 20%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS71% · 71%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 4Lazio or DrawLazio vs Parma · 18:4590%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.09 – 0.69Lazio · Parma1 · X · 263% · 27% · 10%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS49% · 45%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedHome or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 5Chelsea to scoreChelsea vs Tottenham · 16:3089%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.25 – 1.43Chelsea · Tottenham1 · X · 253% · 27% · 20%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS68% · 69%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
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How PickLab works
Real data
Official feed from API-Football: fixtures, lineups, events and statistics.
Transparent model
A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.
No invented numbers
If there is not enough data we say so instead of guessing.