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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.

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  1. 1Barcelona to scoreBarcelona vs Real Madrid · 20:0090%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.39 – 1.63Barcelona · Real Madrid
    1 · X · 252% · 27% · 21%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS73% · 73%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  2. 2Real Sociedad to scoreReal Sociedad vs Levante · 17:3086%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.01 – 1.45Real Sociedad · Levante
    1 · X · 249% · 29% · 23%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS64% · 67%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  3. 3SC Braga or DrawNacional vs SC Braga · 18:0084%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals0.89 – 1.70Nacional · SC Braga
    1 · X · 216% · 31% · 53%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS45% · 49%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Away or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  4. 4Sporting CP to scoreSporting CP vs Academico Viseu · 20:3083%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.82 – 1.22Sporting CP · Academico Viseu
    1 · X · 249% · 30% · 21%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS56% · 60%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  5. 5AC Milan to scoreUdinese vs AC Milan · 19:4582%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.23 – 1.67Udinese · AC Milan
    1 · X · 220% · 32% · 47%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS52% · 59%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

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A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.

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