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  1. 1Athletic Club to scorePrat vs Athletic Club · 20:0084%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.25 – 1.82Prat · Athletic Club
    1 · X · 226% · 23% · 51%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS59% · 60%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  2. 2Antequera to scoreAntequera vs Águilas · 19:0075%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.39 – 1.15Antequera · Águilas
    1 · X · 242% · 27% · 31%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS47% · 51%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  3. 3Over 1.5 goalsConquense vs Castellón · 19:0073%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.30 – 1.29Conquense · Castellón
    1 · X · 237% · 26% · 37%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS48% · 53%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Combined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  4. 4Xerez to scoreXerez vs Cadiz · 20:0070%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.19 – 1.00Xerez · Cadiz
    1 · X · 240% · 29% · 31%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS38% · 44%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

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Transparent model

A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.

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