Səbail vs Cəbrayıl Prediction & Stats | Birinci Dasta

Birinci Dasta AI statistical preview

11:00

Thu 5 Nov 2026

Previa del partido

Birinci Dasta: Səbail (#4) recibe a Cəbrayıl (#1). Forma reciente — Səbail: 3G 1E 1P; Cəbrayıl: 4G 0E 1P. El modelo ve un partido igualado, sin un favorito claro.

Modelo PickLab: victoria de Səbail 43%, empate 30%, victoria de Cəbrayıl 27%. Goles esperados: Səbail 1.51 – 1.12 Cəbrayıl (total 2.6). Marcador más probable: 1–1 (14%). Ambos marcan: 53%. Más de 2,5 goles: 48%.

Generado automáticamente con el modelo estadístico de PickLab y los resultados recientes. No es un consejo de apuestas.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

42%Səbail winHighest estimate

=30%Draw

28%Cəbrayıl win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Səbail1.51xG1.12Cəbrayıl

Most likely scores1–113.7%1–09.6%0–09.5%

73%Over 1.5

48%Over 2.5

27%Over 3.5

53%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

Open in Predictor

Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #176%

Səbail to score

The model projects 1.51 goals for Səbail and calculates a 76% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #273%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 2.63 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 73%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #372%

Səbail or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 72%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Cəbrayıl to score

68%

Cəbrayıl or Draw

57%

Both teams to score

53%

At least one team fails to score

47%

Under 4.5 goals

87%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Səbail

WWDWL

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 0.80
Model sample: 20 matches

21 Oct@ Şahdağ0–115 Oct@ Zaqatala3–1 08 Octvs Karvan1–1 17 Sep@ Baku Sportinq1–0 10 Sepvs Mingəçevir2–1

Cəbrayıl

WWWLW

Scored / game: 3.00
Conceded / game: 0.60
Model sample: 20 matches

22 Octvs Zaqatala7–0 16 Oct@ Karvan1–2 10 Octvs Baku Sportinq2–0 17 Sep@ Mingəçevir3–0 10 Sepvs Xankəndi FK2–1

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.77) and away (1.30) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

1.00 / 0.67Səbail attack / defence

1.22 / 0.81Cəbrayıl attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H