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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.

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  1. 1Over 1.5 goalsSassuolo vs Fiorentina · 17:3088%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.84 – 1.87Sassuolo · Fiorentina
    1 · X · 231% · 29% · 41%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS68% · 72%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Combined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  2. 2Benfica to scoreBenfica vs Alverca · 20:1587%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.22 – 1.02Benfica · Alverca
    1 · X · 259% · 27% · 14%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS59% · 58%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 18 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  3. 3Valladolid or DrawValladolid vs Leganes · 17:3085%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.63 – 0.79Valladolid · Leganes
    1 · X · 253% · 31% · 15%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS41% · 45%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Home or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  4. 4Mallorca or DrawMallorca vs Cadiz · 20:0084%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.58 – 0.79Mallorca · Cadiz
    1 · X · 252% · 32% · 16%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS40% · 45%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Home or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  5. 5Oviedo to scoreOviedo vs Las Palmas · 15:1584%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.86 – 1.13Oviedo · Las Palmas
    1 · X · 251% · 30% · 19%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS55% · 58%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

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