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Birinci Dasta AI statistical preview

Anteprima della partita

Birinci Dasta: Mingəçevir (#8) ospita Şahdağ (#2). Forma recente — Mingəçevir: 1V 0N 4P; Şahdağ: 4V 0N 1P. Şahdağ è il favorito del modello.

Modello PickLab: vittoria Mingəçevir 12%, pareggio 32%, vittoria Şahdağ 56%. Gol attesi: Mingəçevir 0.82 – 1.71 Şahdağ (totale 2.5). Risultato più probabile: 1–1 (14%). Entrambe segnano: 47%. Over 2,5 gol: 44%.

Generato automaticamente dal modello statistico PickLab e dai risultati recenti. Non è un consiglio di scommessa.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles
12%Mingəçevir win
=32%Draw
56%Şahdağ winHighest estimate

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities
Mingəçevir0.82xG1.71Şahdağ
Most likely scores1–114.5%0–112.6%0–011.9%
71%Over 1.5
44%Over 2.5
25%Over 3.5
47%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

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Form & trends

Last completed matches

Mingəçevir

LLLLW
Scored / game
0.60
Conceded / game
2.40
Model sample
20 matches
21 Oct@ Xankəndi FK1–015 Octvs Şimal1–409 Oct@ MOIK0–317 Sepvs Cəbrayıl0–310 Sep@ Səbail1–2

How this prediction is built

  1. League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.77) and away (1.30) per match.
  2. Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
  3. Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
  4. Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
  5. Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
  6. Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.
0.83 / 1.31Mingəçevir attack / defence
1.10 / 0.43Şahdağ attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H