Birinci Dasta: Səbail (#4) ospita Cəbrayıl (#1). Forma recente — Səbail: 3V 1N 1P; Cəbrayıl: 4V 0N 1P. Il modello vede una partita equilibrata, senza un favorito chiaro.
Modello PickLab: vittoria Səbail 43%, pareggio 30%, vittoria Cəbrayıl 27%. Gol attesi: Səbail 1.51 – 1.12 Cəbrayıl (totale 2.6). Risultato più probabile: 1–1 (14%). Entrambe segnano: 53%. Over 2,5 gol: 48%.
Generato automaticamente dal modello statistico PickLab e dai risultati recenti. Non è un consiglio di scommessa.
Match outcome
1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles
42%Səbail winHighest estimate
=30%Draw
28%Cəbrayıl win
Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.
Goals & scorelines
Expected goals and market probabilities
Səbail1.51xG1.12Cəbrayıl
Most likely scores1–113.7%1–09.6%0–09.5%
73%Over 1.5
48%Over 2.5
27%Over 3.5
53%Both score
Test your own markets
Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.
The model projects 1.51 goals for Səbail and calculates a 76% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
★ #273%
Over 1.5 goals
The model projects 2.63 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 73%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
★ #372%
Səbail or Draw
This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 72%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.
More selections
4
Cəbrayıl to score
67%
5
Cəbrayıl or Draw
57%
6
Both teams to score
53%
7
At least one team fails to score
47%
8
Under 4.5 goals
87%
Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.
League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.77) and away (1.30) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.
1.00 / 0.67Səbail attack / defence
1.22 / 0.81Cəbrayıl attack / defence
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.
A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.