Budafoki LC vs Érdi VSE Prediction & Stats | NB III - Southwest

NB III - Southwest AI statistical preview

11:00

Sat 24 Oct 2026

Match preview

NB III - Southwest: Budafoki LC (#7) host Érdi VSE (#10). Recent form — Budafoki LC: 1W 1D 3L; Érdi VSE: 3W 0D 2L. Budafoki LC is the model’s favourite.

PickLab model: Budafoki LC win 62%, draw 24%, Érdi VSE win 14%. Expected goals: Budafoki LC 2.85 – 1.33 Érdi VSE (total 4.2). Most likely score: 1–1 (9%). Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%.

Generated automatically from the PickLab statistical model and recent results. Not betting advice.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

62%Budafoki LC winHighest estimate

=24%Draw

14%Érdi VSE win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Budafoki LC2.85xG1.33Érdi VSE

Most likely scores1–19.1%2–17.4%2–27.3%

91%Over 1.5

75%Over 2.5

58%Over 3.5

70%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

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Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #193%

Budafoki LC to score

The model projects 2.85 goals for Budafoki LC and calculates a 93% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #291%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 4.19 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 91%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #386%

Budafoki LC or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 86%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Over 2.5 goals

75%

Budafoki LC 2+ goals

74%

Érdi VSE to score

74%

Both teams to score

70%

Budafoki LC to win

62%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Budafoki LC

WLLDL

Scored / game: 1.80
Conceded / game: 2.60
Model sample: 19 matches

17 Oct@ Ferencváros II1–3 10 Octvs Majosi3–3 03 Oct@ Pécsi MFC1–2 26 Sepvs Dunaharaszti MTK2–4 19 Sep@ Paksi SE II2–1

Érdi VSE

WLWLW

Scored / game: 2.40
Conceded / game: 2.40
Model sample: 20 matches

17 Octvs PTE-PEAC3–1 11 Oct@ MTK Budapest II1–3 03 Octvs Kaposvar3–1 26 Sep@ Iváncsa1–4 19 Sepvs Sárbogárd4–3

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (2.49) and away (1.40) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

1.01 / 0.89Budafoki LC attack / defence

1.05 / 1.19Érdi VSE attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H