MTK Budapest II vs Kaposvar Prediction & Stats | NB III - Southwest

NB III - Southwest AI statistical preview

11:00

Sat 24 Oct 2026

Match preview

NB III - Southwest: MTK Budapest II (#9) host Kaposvar (#2). Recent form — MTK Budapest II: 2W 0D 3L; Kaposvar: 2W 1D 2L. The model sees a balanced match with no clear favourite.

PickLab model: MTK Budapest II win 40%, draw 29%, Kaposvar win 31%. Expected goals: MTK Budapest II 2.00 – 1.42 Kaposvar (total 3.4). Most likely score: 1–1 (12%). Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%.

Generated automatically from the PickLab statistical model and recent results. Not betting advice.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

40%MTK Budapest II winHighest estimate

=29%Draw

31%Kaposvar win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

MTK Budapest II2.00xG1.42Kaposvar

Most likely scores1–112.3%2–27.7%1–27.5%

84%Over 1.5

63%Over 2.5

43%Over 3.5

67%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

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Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #184%

Over 1.5 goals

The model projects 3.42 combined goals. Its estimated probability of at least two goals is 84%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #283%

MTK Budapest II to score

The model projects 2.00 goals for MTK Budapest II and calculates a 83% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #378%

Kaposvar to score

The model projects 1.42 goals for Kaposvar and calculates a 78% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

MTK Budapest II or Draw

69%

Both teams to score

67%

Kaposvar or Draw

60%

MTK Budapest II 2+ goals

53%

Under 4.5 goals

75%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

MTK Budapest II

WLLWL

Scored / game: 1.80
Conceded / game: 2.60
Model sample: 20 matches

17 Oct@ Iváncsa2–5 11 Octvs Érdi VSE3–1 03 Oct@ Ferencváros II0–2 19 Sep@ Pécsi MFC0–3 06 Sepvs Dunaharaszti MTK4–2

Kaposvar

LDLWW

Scored / game: 2.40
Conceded / game: 1.80
Model sample: 20 matches

17 Octvs Sárbogárd7–0 10 Octvs Iváncsa1–0 03 Oct@ Érdi VSE1–3 26 Sepvs Ferencváros II2–2 19 Sep@ Majosi1–4

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (2.49) and away (1.40) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

1.11 / 0.81MTK Budapest II attack / defence

1.26 / 0.67Kaposvar attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H