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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.

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  1. 1Real Madrid to scoreReal Madrid vs RB Leipzig · 19:0089%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.38 – 1.20Real Madrid · RB Leipzig
    1 · X · 258% · 26% · 15%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS66% · 64%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  2. 2Sporting CP to scoreSporting CP vs Lask Linz · 19:0089%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.49 – 1.30Sporting CP · Lask Linz
    1 · X · 256% · 23% · 21%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS70% · 68%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  3. 3Over 1.5 goalsReal Betis vs Feyenoord · 19:0089%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.10 – 1.80Real Betis · Feyenoord
    1 · X · 246% · 29% · 25%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS71% · 74%Goal markets
    Sample19 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Combined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  4. 4Over 1.5 goalsFC Cincinnati vs DC United · 23:0089%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.32 – 1.56FC Cincinnati · DC United
    1 · X · 249% · 24% · 27%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS72% · 71%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Combined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  5. 5Aston Villa to scoreAston Villa vs Viking · 19:0087%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.12 – 1.41Aston Villa · Viking
    1 · X · 251% · 28% · 21%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS65% · 67%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

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A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.

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