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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.
- 1Covadonga to scoreCovadonga vs Valladolid · 19:0089%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.16 – 1.19Covadonga · Valladolid1 · X · 260% · 20% · 20%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS65% · 62%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 2Atlético Baleares to scoreAtlético Baleares vs Eldense · 18:0083%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.76 – 1.07Atlético Baleares · Eldense1 · X · 254% · 24% · 23%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS54% · 54%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 3Over 1.5 goalsFiorentina vs Atalanta · 19:4583%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.60 – 1.62Fiorentina · Atalanta1 · X · 236% · 27% · 37%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS61% · 64%Goal marketsSample19 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedCombined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 4Atletico-MG to scoreAtletico-MG vs Cruzeiro · 22:3081%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.68 – 1.28Atletico-MG · Cruzeiro1 · X · 245% · 31% · 24%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS54% · 60%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 5Poblense to scorePoblense vs AD Ceuta FC · 18:0080%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.63 – 0.94Poblense · AD Ceuta FC1 · X · 254% · 25% · 22%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS47% · 49%Goal marketsSample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
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How PickLab works
Real data
Official feed from API-Football: fixtures, lineups, events and statistics.
Transparent model
A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.
No invented numbers
If there is not enough data we say so instead of guessing.