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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.

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  1. 1Covadonga to scoreCovadonga vs Valladolid · 19:0089%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.16 – 1.19Covadonga · Valladolid
    1 · X · 260% · 20% · 20%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS65% · 62%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  2. 2Badajoz to scoreBadajoz vs Tenerife · 19:0080%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.62 – 0.94Badajoz · Tenerife
    1 · X · 253% · 25% · 22%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS47% · 49%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

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Transparent model

A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.

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