Xankəndi FK vs Karvan Prediction & Stats | Birinci Dasta

Birinci Dasta AI statistical preview

10:00

Thu 19 Nov 2026

Previzualizarea meciului

Birinci Dasta: Xankəndi FK (#7) o primește pe Karvan (#5). Forma recentă — Xankəndi FK: 1V 1E 3Î; Karvan: 2V 1E 2Î. Modelul vede un meci echilibrat, fără un favorit clar.

Model PickLab: victorie Xankəndi FK 29%, egal 35%, victorie Karvan 36%. Goluri așteptate: Xankəndi FK 1.11 – 1.03 Karvan (total 2.1). Scorul cel mai probabil: 1–1 (16%). Ambele marchează: 44%. Peste 2,5 goluri: 35%.

Generat automat din modelul statistic PickLab și rezultatele recente. Nu reprezintă un sfat de pariuri.

Match outcome

1X2 · Poisson + Dixon–Coles

29%Xankəndi FK win

=36%DrawHighest estimate

35%Karvan win

Estimated probabilities, not betting odds. Rounded to total 100%.

Goals & scorelines

Expected goals and market probabilities

Xankəndi FK1.11xG1.03Karvan

Most likely scores1–115.5%0–015%0–112.3%

63%Over 1.5

35%Over 2.5

17%Over 3.5

44%Both score

Test your own markets

Tick Over 2.5, Both teams to score, a correct score or any combination and see the probability from the v2 model.

Open in Predictor

Top 3 featured picks

Highest-probability markets

★ #171%

Karvan or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 71%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #267%

Karvan to score

The model projects 1.03 goals for Karvan and calculates a 67% chance they score at least once. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

★ #365%

Xankəndi FK or Draw

This selection covers two possible match outcomes. Their combined estimated probability is 65%. It is featured because it ranks among the three highest estimated probabilities in the eligible eight-pick shortlist; this is not a measure of betting value.

More selections

Xankəndi FK to score

63%

Over 1.5 goals

63%

At least one team fails to score

56%

Both teams to score

44%

Under 4.5 goals

93%

Featured picks may overlap (for example a team scoring and over 1.5 goals). A high probability does not mean good betting value.

Form & trends

Last completed matches

Xankəndi FK

LLDWL

Scored / game: 0.60
Conceded / game: 1.20
Model sample: 8 matches

21 Octvs Mingəçevir0–1 15 Octvs Şahdağ1–009 Oct@ Şimal1–1 18 Sepvs MOIK0–2 10 Sep@ Cəbrayıl1–2

Karvan

LWDWL

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 1.40
Model sample: 20 matches

22 Oct@ MOIK1–3 16 Octvs Cəbrayıl2–1 08 Oct@ Səbail1–1 16 Sepvs Zaqatala3–0 09 Sep@ Şahdağ0–2

How this prediction is built

League baseline. Expected goals start from this competition’s real scoring averages at home (1.77) and away (1.30) per match.
Attack and defence ratings. Each team is rated against that baseline from the season table and its last 20 matches, with older matches fading (half-life ~90 days).
Opponent adjustment. Goals against weak defences count less, goals against strong ones count more.
Regression to the mean. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so one big result does not distort the estimate.
Poisson + Dixon–Coles. Expected goals generate a probability for every scoreline; a low-score correction fixes the known underestimation of draws and 1-0 / 0-1 / 1-1.
Markets. 1X2, totals and both-teams-to-score are read from that scoreline grid.

0.62 / 0.81Xankəndi FK attack / defence

0.90 / 0.87Karvan attack / defence

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00). Attack above 1 scores more than average; defence above 1 concedes more.

A statistical model, not a trained AI. It does not know about injuries, lineups, motivation or odds. Use it as one more data point.

Match center, lineups & H2H