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  1. 1SC Freiburg to scoreSC Freiburg vs Union Berlin · 16:3092%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.98 – 1.06SC Freiburg · Union Berlin
    1 · X · 265% · 20% · 15%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS73% · 64%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  2. 2Real Sociedad to scoreReal Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano · 15:1588%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals2.20 – 1.52Real Sociedad · Rayo Vallecano
    1 · X · 250% · 28% · 22%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS68% · 70%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  3. 3Over 1.5 goalsMonza vs Atalanta · 14:0088%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.94 – 1.81Monza · Atalanta
    1 · X · 233% · 29% · 38%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS69% · 72%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Combined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  4. 4Lazio to scoreNapoli vs Lazio · 11:3087%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.35 – 2.07Napoli · Lazio
    1 · X · 220% · 28% · 51%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS63% · 66%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  5. 5Bournemouth to scoreIpswich vs Bournemouth · 14:0087%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.52 – 2.03Ipswich · Bournemouth
    1 · X · 224% · 29% · 48%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS66% · 69%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

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