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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.
- 1Real Madrid to scoreReal Madrid vs RB Leipzig · 19:0092%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.48 – 1.41Real Madrid · RB Leipzig1 · X · 261% · 18% · 21%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS75% · 69%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 2Over 1.5 goalsSporting CP vs Lask Linz · 19:0090%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.32 – 1.61Sporting CP · Lask Linz1 · X · 254% · 20% · 27%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS75% · 72%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedCombined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 3Over 1.5 goalsReal Betis vs Feyenoord · 19:0090%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.77 – 2.11Real Betis · Feyenoord1 · X · 233% · 21% · 46%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS74% · 73%Goal marketsSample19 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedCombined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 4Bayern München to scoreBayern München vs Arsenal · 19:0090%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.27 – 1.33Bayern München · Arsenal1 · X · 259% · 20% · 22%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS70% · 66%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 5FC Cincinnati to scoreFC Cincinnati vs DC United · 23:0089%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.23 – 1.54FC Cincinnati · DC United1 · X · 253% · 20% · 26%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS73% · 70%Goal marketsSample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
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Real data
Official feed from API-Football: fixtures, lineups, events and statistics.
Transparent model
A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.
No invented numbers
If there is not enough data we say so instead of guessing.