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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.

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  1. 1Sabadell or DrawSabadell vs Real Sociedad II · 19:3083%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.68 – 0.92Sabadell · Real Sociedad II
    1 · X · 252% · 31% · 17%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS46% · 50%Goal markets
    Sample19 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Home or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  2. 2Plymouth Parkway to scorePlymouth Parkway vs Berkhamsted · 19:3081%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.64 – 1.32Plymouth Parkway · Berkhamsted
    1 · X · 245% · 24% · 31%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS57% · 59%Goal markets
    Sample18 + 18 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Projected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

  3. 3Guadalajara Chivas or DrawLeon vs Guadalajara Chivas · 02:1074%
    Data behind this pick
    Expected goals1.11 – 1.26Leon · Guadalajara Chivas
    1 · X · 226% · 34% · 40%Match result probabilities
    Over 2.5 · BTTS41% · 49%Goal markets
    Sample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weighted

    Away or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →

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A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.

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