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Highest-probability markets from our statistical model. Not betting advice.
- 1Almeria to scoreAlmeria vs FC Andorra · 17:3086%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals2.06 – 0.90Almeria · FC Andorra1 · X · 263% · 22% · 15%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS56% · 52%Goal marketsSample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected home attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 2Mallorca or DrawMallorca vs Cordoba · 17:3085%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.74 – 0.83Mallorca · Cordoba1 · X · 255% · 30% · 15%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS45% · 48%Goal marketsSample19 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedHome or draw probability. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 3Castellón to scoreValladolid vs Castellón · 13:0081%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.10 – 1.68Valladolid · Castellón1 · X · 224% · 26% · 50%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS52% · 54%Goal marketsSample20 + 19 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedProjected away attacking output. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
- 4Over 1.5 goalsOviedo vs Girona · 20:0075%
Data behind this pick
Expected goals1.47 – 1.26Oviedo · Girona1 · X · 233% · 32% · 35%Match result probabilitiesOver 2.5 · BTTS49% · 56%Goal marketsSample20 + 20 matchesLast completed matches, home/away weightedCombined projected goal rate. Poisson goal model, not a guarantee. Full analysis →
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Transparent model
A Poisson goal model on each team’s last 20 matches, weighted for home and away form.
No invented numbers
If there is not enough data we say so instead of guessing.